Despite the slowing and despite the moderate level, details are positive led by a solid showing for new orders, where foreign demand is keeping up with domestic demand, and including a fourth straight build in backlogs. Production slowed but employment was strong in the month and capacity pressures, as in other diffusion reports, are apparent with delivery delays a problem and input costs on a steep rise.
The higher costs are increasingly being passed through to higher selling prices which is likely one factor behind the confidence in the sample which is at its highest since January last year. This report points to steady strength for a factory sector that appears poised to post strong fourth-quarter numbers.
Recent History Of This Indicator:
PMI manufacturing slowed slightly in November's flash to 53.8 but details remained very strong with new orders and backlogs on the rise. Business optimism was also a major plus showing the most strength since early last year. Price pressures were also prominent. Forecasters see a step up for final November with the consensus at 54.5.
PMI manufacturing slowed slightly in November's flash to 53.8 but details remained very strong with new orders and backlogs on the rise. Business optimism was also a major plus showing the most strength since early last year. Price pressures were also prominent. Forecasters see a step up for final November with the consensus at 54.5.
...meanwhile...
A
welcome improvement in delivery times, which is a subtraction in the
headline composite index, masks another exceptionally strong ISM
manufacturing report. November's composite headline, down 5 tenths to
58.2, doesn't do justice to the strength of the report where new orders,
which includes strength for exports, are up 6 tenths and well over 60
at 64.0 while backlog orders are steady at 55.0 which is very strong for
this reading. Production is up a sharp 2.9 points to 63.9 with
employment near 60 at 59.7. These are very strong results.
Pulling the composite down is improvement in delivery times which had backed up significantly during this year's heavy hurricane season. Not all anecdotal reports like this one have been reporting improvement in times though this result should ease concerns that supply chain issues could constrain holiday activity. But constraints are still very apparent with input costs very elevated at 65.5.
ISM's sample has been on fire all year, correctly predicting a rise for government data that has gradually emerged. The factory sector looks ready to end the year on a strong note and offer an important contribution to fourth-quarter GDP.
Pulling the composite down is improvement in delivery times which had backed up significantly during this year's heavy hurricane season. Not all anecdotal reports like this one have been reporting improvement in times though this result should ease concerns that supply chain issues could constrain holiday activity. But constraints are still very apparent with input costs very elevated at 65.5.
ISM's sample has been on fire all year, correctly predicting a rise for government data that has gradually emerged. The factory sector looks ready to end the year on a strong note and offer an important contribution to fourth-quarter GDP.
Recent History Of This Indicator:
The ISM manufacturing index has been surging this year, having beaten Econoday's consensus for five of the last six months. New orders including export sales were major positives in the last report as was employment. The Econoday consensus for November calls for modest slowing, to 58.4 from 58.7.
The ISM manufacturing index has been surging this year, having beaten Econoday's consensus for five of the last six months. New orders including export sales were major positives in the last report as was employment. The Econoday consensus for November calls for modest slowing, to 58.4 from 58.7.
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