Consumer Sentiment Index Remains Edges Back

The consumer sentiment index, at 96.8 for preliminary December, remains elevated though continues to edge back from October's expansion peak of 100.7. Immediate indications on consumer spirits, in what is a positive for the holiday shopping outlook, are in fact very positive as the current conditions component actually rose sharply, up 2.9 points from November to 115.9 for an expansion peak of its own (17-year high).

This component is getting a boost from rising income expectations which is a reflection of the strong jobs market and also perhaps that income gains will not be eaten away by inflation. At least not much by inflation as year-ahead inflation expectations posted a long-awaited outsized rise of 3 tenths to what is still a soft 2.8 percent. This, however, is sometimes volatile and will have to be confirmed by future readings. Five-year inflation expectations are up 1 tenth to 2.5 percent.

The step back in today's report is in expectations where the component fell 4.3 points to 84.6. This was pulled down by a decline in economic confidence among Democrats and reflected, the report says, their concerns about the impact of proposed tax changes.

But this report is really about positives and is underscored by buying plans for durables which are improving this month in what is auspiciuos news for the nation's retailers.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
The consumer sentiment index edged back in November but still came in at a very solid 98.5. The report notes strong certainty among consumers for gains in income and employment. A slight gain is the call for the preliminary December index to 98.8.