Chicago Manufacturing PMI Enormously Strong At Year End

Chicago's PMI sample ends an enormously strong year at a 6-1/2 year high, rising 3.7 points in December to 67.6. Production is at a 34-year high while new orders are at a less spectacular but still very striking 3-1/2 year high. One area not improving, however, is employment which is losing ground as members of the sample are having difficulty finding candidates. Lack of employment growth is of special note and has been cited by the Federal Reserve's Beige Book as a risk to continued business expansion. Signs of overheating are evident in this report which includes respondents from Chicago's manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Growth has been steady and robust all year for the Chicago PMI which, at 63.9 in November, has been over 60 for the last three reports. Overheating is palpable in this report with a lack of available workers keeping down employment and limiting business expansion. For December, forecasters are calling for another 60-plus result at a consensus 62.5. This report tracks both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors of the Chicago-area economy.