The Business Week Ahead

A week that ends on December 1 will be busy but will not include the November employment report which will be posted the following week. Wednesday's testimony from Janet Yellen, who has been repeating the need for an extended series of gradual rate hikes, will be a focus of the week as will Wednesday's Beige Book from the Federal Reserve, a report that has been underlining indications of labor scarcity. Housing, a hesitant sector that may be picking up steam, will be a feature of the week with new home sales on Monday followed by pending home sales on Wednesday and construction spending on Friday. Home price data, both FHFA and Case-Shiller, will be posted on Tuesday. Anecdotal reports on the factory sector will be released through the week beginning with the Dallas and Richmond reports on Monday and Tuesday and ending on Friday with the ISM. And ending the week will be unit vehicle sales which will offer the first tangible indication on consumer spending during November.

Monday

New Home Sales for October

Consensus Forecast, Annualized Rate: 620,000

Consensus Range:  600,000 to 650,000

The new home sales report is known for its volatility which was apparent once again in September as the annualized rate surged to 667,000 for an 18.9 percent monthly gain. This was the largest percentage gain in 28 years and the highest level in 10 years. A big step back in October wouldn't be a surprise and, given the strength of September, wouldn't necessarily dim what is an increasingly positive outlook for the housing sector. The consensus for October new home sales is a 620 ,000 annualized rate.

Dallas Fed General Activity Index for November

Consensus Forecast: 24.5

Consensus Range: 20.0 to 28.0

Hurricane Harvey proved to have little effect on the Dallas Fed general activity index which has remained throughout. New orders have been especially positive and layoffs unusually low. Econoday's consensus for November's general activity index is 24.5.

Tuesday

International Trade In Goods for October

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: -$65.0 billion

Consensus Range: -$66.0 to -$63.0 billion

The goods deficit in October is expected to widen to a consensus $65.0 billion vs $64.1 billion in September. Looking back at September, imports rose 0.9 percent on increases for capital goods, industrial supplies and food products. Exports rose 0.7 percent but strength was isolated to industrial supplies with capital goods, consumer goods, and vehicles all down. Also released with the report will be advance October data for both wholesale inventories and retail inventories which, like net exports, are also GDP inputs.

FHFA House Price Index for September

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.6%

Consensus Range: 0.4% to 0.7%

Appreciation in home prices has been one of this year's best economic stories and proved unusually strong in August for the FHFA house price index which jumped 0.7 percent. Forecasters see the index nearly matching that strength in September with a consensus 0.6 percent gain.

Case-Shiller, 20-City Adjusted Index for September

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.4%

Consensus Range: 0.3% to 0.5%

Case-Shiller, 20-City Unadjusted Index

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.4%

Consensus Range: 0.4% to 0.5%

Case-Shiller, 20-City Unadjusted Index

Consensus Forecast, Year-on-Year Change: 6.2%

Consensus Range: 6.0% to 6.3%

Case-Shiller home prices, like the FHFA index, moved higher in August and another gain is expected for September. Econoday's consensus is calling for a 0.4 percent increase in the 20-city adjusted index following August's 0.5 percent rise. The consensus for the unadjusted monthly index is also 0.4 percent with the consensus for the year-on-year rate at 6.2 percent.

Consumer Confidence Index for November

Consensus Forecast: 124.3

Consensus Range: 123.0 to 126.5

Consumer confidence, at 125.9, is coming off a 17-year high in October when assessments of employment and income expectations were unusually strong. The Econoday consensus is calling for 124.3 in November.

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for October

Consensus Forecast: 15

Consensus Range: 11 to 16

New orders and employment have been key positives for the Richmond Fed's manufacturing index which like other regional reports has been running at some of the hottest levels on record. The index did cool in October to 12 with forecasters calling for re-acceleration in November to 15.

Wednesday

Real GDP: 3rd Quarter, 2nd Estimate, Annualized Rate

Consensus Forecast: 3.3%

Consensus Range: 2.8% to 3.5%

Real Consumer Spending, Annualized Rate

Consensus Forecast: 2.5%

Consensus Range: 2.4% to 3.0%

GDP Price Index

Consensus Forecast: 2.2.%

Consensus Range: 2.1% to 2.2%

The second estimate for third-quarter GDP is expected to come in at a 3.3 percent annualized rate vs 3.0 percent in the first estimate. Consumer spending is one of the expected pluses, seen at 2.5 percent vs the first estimate's 2.4 percent. The GDP price index is expected to remain unchanged at 2.2 percent.

Pending Home Sales Index for October

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 1.0%

Consensus Range: 0.6% to 2.0%

No change in September's pending sales index failed to predict final sales of existing homes in October which proved strong. Yet this index has been a generally accurate gauge for what has proven to be a modest year for the resale market. The Econoday consensus for the October pending sales index is a sharp gain of 1.0 percent.

Beige Book

Prepared for the December 12 & 13 FOMC Meeting

"Modest-to-moderate" was once again the assessment of the last Beige Book released in early October. The report did cite some wage pressures but concerns over inflation were nevertheless limited. Consumer spending got a downgrade to slow growth while the report said both employment and housing were constrained by low inventories.

Thursday

Initial Jobless Claims for November 25 week

Consensus Forecast: 240,000

Consensus Range: 235,000 to 245,000

Initial claims are expected to come in at 240,000 in the November 25 week vs 239,000 in the November 18 week. Data throughout this report are near historic lows though claims from Puerto Rico have been elevated.

Personal Income for October

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.3%

Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.4%

Consumer Spending

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.3%

Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.5%

PCE Price Index

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.1%

Consensus Range: 0.1% to 0.3%

PCE Price Index

Consensus Forecast, Year-on-Year Change: 1.5%

Consensus Range: 1.5% to 1.7%

Core PCE Price Index

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.2%

Consensus Range: 0.1% to 0.3%

Core PCE Price Index

Consensus Forecast, Year-on-Year Change: 1.4%

Consensus Range: 1.4% to 1.5%

Income and especially spending both rose in September but failed to give much lift to the Federal Reserve's core PCE price index and much of the same is expected for October. Personal income is seen rising 0.3 percent in October vs a 0.4 percent gain in September while consumer spending is expected to slow to 0.3 percent vs September's post-hurricane auto surge of 1.0 percent. The PCE price index is expected to rise only 0.1 percent for a year-on-year rate of 1.5 percent with the core PCE price index, which excludes both food and energy, seen up 0.2 percent for a yearly rate of only 1.4 percent.

Chicago PMI for November

Consensus Forecast: 64.0

Consensus Range: 61.0 to 66.5

No regional report has been stronger than the Chicago PMI which, at 66.2 and 65.2 in October and September, appears to be at risk of overheating. The one weakness in October was hiring which was down, not because of demand, but due to a lack of available labor to employ. For November, forecasters are calling for only limited slowing, to a still 60-plus consensus at 64.0.

Friday

PMI Manufacturing for November, Final

Consensus Forecast: 54.5

Consensus Range: 53.8 to 54.9

PMI manufacturing slowed slightly in November's flash to 53.8 but details remained very strong with new orders and backlogs on the rise. Business optimism was also a major plus showing the most strength since early last year. Price pressures were also prominent. Forecasters see a step up for final November with the consensus at 54.5.

ISM Manufacturing Index for November

Consensus Forecast: 58.4

Consensus Range: 57.5 to 59.5

The ISM manufacturing index has been surging this year, having beaten Econoday's consensus for five of the last six months. New orders including export sales were major positives in the last report as was employment. The Econoday consensus for November calls for modest slowing, to 58.4 from 58.7.

Construction Spending for October

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.5% 

Consensus Range: 0.4% to 0.8%

Construction spending has been mixed all year rising 0.3 percent in September with October's consensus increase at 0.5 percent. Nonresidential construction has been the weak link but not residential construction which, with strength centered in single-family homes, has been rising at a nearly double-digit pace.

Total Unit Vehicle Sales for November

Consensus Forecast, Annualized Rate: 17.6 million

Consensus Range: 17.2 to 18.0 million

Domestic-made Unit Vehicle Sales

Consensus Forecast, Annualized Rate: 13.7 million

Consensus Range: 13.5 to 14.0 million

Vehicle sales have been on fire following the heavy hurricane season and the need to replace vehicles. But forecasters see this effect easing though the November consensus for total unit sales is still strong at a 17.6 million annualized rate. Domestic-made vehicles are expected to slow to a 13.7 million rate from 14.2 million in October.