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Saturday, November 4, 2017

The Business Week Ahead

It's a very light week for the economic calendar. JOLTS data on Tuesday will update job openings which have been far exceeding hirings in strong evidence that the economy is at full employment. Jobless claims will offer the first November update on the jobs market and whether hurricane effects have completely unwound. Rounding out the week is consumer sentiment which, reflecting the strength of the labor market, is coming off a 13-year high.


Tuesday


Small Business Optimism Index for October
Consensus Forecast: 105.0
Consensus Range: 103.5 to 105.7


The small business optimism index has been at expansion highs though September did see some cooling, to 103.0 for the lowest reading of the year. Sales expectations and business plans showed the most weakness. Econoday's call for October is a bounce back to 105.0.


JOLTS: Job Openings for September
Consensus Forecast: 6.082 million
Consensus Range: 6.050 to 6.125 million


At 4.1 percent, the unemployment rate is low and consistent with full employment which is also the signal from the JOLTS report where job openings have been running over 6 million and nearly matching the number of unemployed actively looking for work. Econoday's consensus for September job openings is 6.082 million.


Consumer Credit for September
Consensus Forecast: $17.4 billion
Consensus Range: $16.1 to $22.5 billion


Revolving credit has been increasing this year raising talk of slackening standards in the credit card industry. Boosted by revolving credit, consumer credit rose $13.1 billion in August with forecasters looking for $17.4 billion in September.


Thursday


Initial Jobless Claims for November 5 week
Consensus Forecast: 232,000
Consensus Range: 229,000 to 242,000


Initial claims are expected to come in at 232,000 in the November 5 week vs 233,000 in the October 28 week. Hurricane-related claims from Puerto Rico are still a wildcard.


Wholesale Inventories for September
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.3%
Consensus Range: 0.1% to 0.3%


Wholesale trade inventories are expected to rise 0.3 percent which is right in line with September's advance reading. Wholesalers have been building their inventories aggressively with 0.9 percent and 0.6 percent builds in the prior two reports.


Friday


Consumer Sentiment Index, Preliminary November
Consensus Forecast: 100.0
Consensus Range: 97.0 to 102.0


Underpinned by high employment and rising income prospects, the consumer sentiment index jumped in the preliminary October report to 101.1 for the best showing in 13 years before ending the month nearly as high, at 100.7. Econoday's consensus for preliminary November is 100.0.


Treasury Budget for October
Consensus Forecast: -$56.1 billion
Consensus Range: -72.0$ to -$48.0 billion


The Treasury ended fiscal 2017 with a $665.7 deficit and a 13.7 percent increase from fiscal 2016. October's budget starts off fiscal 2018 with a $56.1 deficit the expectation.

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