Leading Economic Indicators Hit High End Of Estimates

A swing higher after a swing lower is October's hurricane result as the index of leading economic indicators hit Econoday's high estimate at 1.2 percent. September was initially posted as a 0.2 percent decline and, in another positive, is revised to a 0.1 percent gain.

Unemployment claims were the biggest swing factor between the months, pulling the index 0.21 percentage points lower in September as those hit by the hurricanes filed first-time claims, then adding 0.45 points as claims fell back. October strengths also include jumps in building permits and the factory workweek. ISM new manufacturing orders were strong positives in both months as were, as always, the yield spread and specifically short-term interest rates.

Hurricane effects made their mark on the LEI and the net message from September and October together is year-end acceleration for the economy.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Hurricane factors including higher jobless claims and a shorter workweek pulled down the index of leading economic indicators by 0.2 percent in September. But claims have since fallen back while the workweek has climbed, these together with a jump in building permits point to strength for October's LEI. Forecasters see the LEI rising 0.6 percent.