FHFA House Price Index Rises

Home prices continued to rise in September in what, however, are mixed signals from the FHFA and Case-Shiller reports. FHFA's house price index rose 0.3 percent which is just below Econoday's low estimate. The year-on-year rate of 6.3 percent is the lowest since January. Easing the impact of the short falls are 1 tenth upward revisions to August where the monthly gain is now an unusually strong 0.8 percent with the yearly gain at 6.7 percent. Case-Shiller's September data came in at the high end of expectations with a 0.5 percent monthly rise for the 20-city adjusted index and a year-on-year of 6.2 percent which is the best in 3-1/2 years.

Taking these two reports together, home prices appear to be steady at a roughly 6 percent annual rate which is rich in a low inflation, low interest rate economy. Details in FHFA data have the West North Central region leading September at a 0.9 percent monthly gain and the East South Central the only region in monthly contraction, at minus 0.4 percent. The Pacific region leads the year-on-year rate at 8.7 percent.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Appreciation in home prices has been one of this year's best economic stories and proved unusually strong in August for the FHFA house price index which jumped 0.7 percent. Forecasters see the index nearly matching that strength in September with a consensus 0.6 percent gain.