Consumer Sentiment Edges Higher

Consumer sentiment edged higher from mid-month but down slightly from October, closing out November at a very solid 98.5. This report, like other confidence readings, has been holding steady at expansion highs all year. The report notes strong certainty among consumers for gains in income and employment and also, and this is a problem for FOMC policy makers, unusual certainty that inflation will remain very low, at 2.5 percent for the year-ahead outlook and 2.4 percent of the 5-year outlook.

Looking at components, current conditions end November at 113.5 which is slightly below October's 116.5. This is a marginal loss but still doesn't point to acceleration for consumer spending which is important given the start of holiday shopping. The expectations index also edged lower to 88.9.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
The consumer sentiment index edged back in the preliminary November report to a 97.8 level that remains historically very high. Inflation expectations improved in the report as expectations for wage growth hit an expansion high. Econoday's consensus for preliminary November is for little change, at 98.1.