Consumer Confidence Continues To Soar

Consumer confidence continues to soar, at 129.5 in November which is a new 17-year high and easily surpasses Econoday's top estimate. The strength is derived from the labor market where a very low 16.9 percent describe jobs as currently hard to get. This reading is closely watched and will boost expectations for another strong monthly employment report. And extending strength is expected for the labor market with optimists on the jobs outlook surging nearly 4 percentage points to 22.6 percent and nearly double pessimists who are down 6 tenths to only 11.0 percent. Confidence is likewise booming for the stock market where 46.0 percent see stocks rising over the next year which is up 3.8 points from October. Bears are down to 19.0 percent from last month's 22.7 percent.

The combination of expected gains in jobs together with expected gains for stocks is making for unusual confidence in the year-ahead income outlook where 20.1 percent see gains and only 7.6 percent see declines. This is a core reading and underscores the report's level of strength.

Not favorable, however, are inflation expectations which are down 2 tenths to 4.5 percent which is very low for this reading. Buying plans are mixed with cars, after a spike in October, back down but with housing up.

Wage growth has been limited but so has price inflation which perhaps is another factor boosting income expectations. In any case, consumer confidence as measured by this report and others is enjoying its best run in a generation.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Consumer confidence, at 125.9, is coming off a 17-year high in October when assessments of employment and income expectations were unusually strong. The Econoday consensus is calling for 124.5 in November.