Leading Economic Indicators Lower On Hurricane Effects

Hurricane-driven spikes in jobless claims pulled down the index of leading economic indicators in September which, at minus 0.2 percent, came in well below Econoday's low estimate. But reversal this month in claims, evident in the 44-year low posted earlier this morning for initial claims in the October 14 week, points to a sizable positive effect for October's LEI. But September's index was also pulled lower by building permits where strength has been uneven all year and also 2 indicators on the factory sector: the workweek and capital goods orders. In contrast the biggest positive factor in the month is ISM's new orders index which is at a 4-year high and continues to signal unusual strength for the factory sector. Among other components, the yield spread once again was a big positive reflecting low short-term interest rates. The signals are mixed in today's report, especially for the factory sector, but excluding distortions tied to jobless claims, the trend is positive.

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Low short-term interest rates, high consumer expectations, and ISM manufacturing orders have been underpinning the index of leading economic indicators which rose 0.4 percent in August. But the hurricane-related spike in initial jobless claims will hold down September's results were the Econoday consensus is for only a 0.1 percent gain.