Business Investment Picking Up On Favorable Durable Goods Report

Business investment is picking up sharply based capital goods orders which highlight a very favorable durable goods report. Durable orders jumped 2.2 percent in September which is right at Econoday's high estimate. A second straight strong month for commercial aircraft, up 64 percent following a 52 percent gain in August, skewed the headline higher but when excluding transportation equipment, orders still managed a strong 0.7 percent gain.

But its core capital goods orders (nondefense ex-aircraft) that show the most important strength, up 1.3 percent with the two prior months also at 1.3 percent. Shipments for this series, which are direct inputs into the business investment component of the GDP report, are building momentum with monthly gains of 0.7 percent in September following 1.2 and 1.0 percent gains in August and July.

One soft spot is vehicle orders which rose only fractionally. Hurricanes effects could not be isolated in September's data and seasonal adjustment procedures were unchanged. Note that upward revisions to August data were first posted in the factory orders report.

Unfilled orders have been flat but rose 0.2 percent which are another positive of September's report. And a rise in inventories will be another plus for GDP, up 0.6 percent and pointing to a monthly build for total factory inventories.

Year-on-year rates are really telling the story, now hitting highs last seen before the oil price collapse of 2014. Total orders are up a yearly 8.3 percent with ex-transportation up 7.5 percent and core capital goods up 7.8 percent.

With only one exception remaining, and that is manufacturing production in the Federal Reserve's industrial production report, factory data are accelerating going into year end. Watch for the Kansas City manufacturing report on tomorrow's calendar.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Durable goods growth has been steady and moderate with one special highlight and that's improvement for capital goods. Vehicles were another a highlight of the August report with replacement demand a possible key plus for September. Econoday's consensus for durable goods orders is a 1.0 percent gain on top of August's 2.0 percent jump. Ex-transportation orders are seen up 0.5 percent with core capital goods orders also up 0.5 percent.