August Trade Data Mostly Positive

August trade data are positive for third-quarter GDP, at a deficit of $42.4 billion which is right at expectations and includes gains for exports and declines for imports. Exports rose 0.4 percent to $195.3 billion and include a 0.4 percent rise for goods, to $129.2 billion, and a 0.1 decline for imports to $237.7 billion. The goods deficit, as indicated in last week's advance report, improved 1.3 percent to $64.4 billion while the services surplus, fresh data in today's report, widened 1.4 percent to $22.0 billion.

The export side shows gains for consumer goods and capital goods while the import side shows declines for industrial supplies and capital goods. Petroleum trade was a negative in the month with the deficit widening to $4.9 billion from July's $3.0 billion.

The effect of Hurricane Harvey's late August landfall on Texas could not be quantified by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, though Hurricane Irma's hit on Florida in the next trade report for September, given its impact along the southeast seaboard, is still a wild card for third-quarter net exports.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
The international trade deficit held steady in July and forecasters, in what be a plus for third-quarter GDP, are calling for a sharp narrowing in August to $42.5 vs July's $43.7. This would be in line with advance data on the goods part of the report which narrowed in August, to $62.9 billion from $63.9 billion. Note that hurricane effects are in play as Irma may have shut in imports and kept out exports during the month.