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Tuesday, October 4, 2016

Economic Confidence Index Low, Steady

September economic confidence index averaged minus 10, in line with August's average of minus 11 and five points higher than the index's minus 12 minus month low in July. The index began the year close to its current level with January at minus 11. Confidence fell from minus 10 in March to minus 14 in April amid rising gas prices and reports of slow economic growth in the first quarter. The index slipped to minus 15 in July, nominally the worst reading since September 2014. But despite its relatively low monthly average, confidence rebounded in the final week of July. Although the August and September monthly economic confidence averages represent an improvement from the index's recent slump, they remain below the post-recession high of plus 3 recorded in January 2015.

In September, an equal percentage of Americans (28 percent) rated current economic conditions as "excellent" or "good" and "poor." Overall, the monthly average of the current conditions component stood at 0. While this score is essentially unchanged from the August value (minus 2), it is only one point below its January 2015 post-recession high of plus 1. The economic outlook component stayed put in September, averaging minus 19. The September outlook score reflected 38 percent of Americans saying the economy was "getting better," and 57 percent saying it was "getting worse."

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