Consumer Sentiment Index Weakens In October

The consumer sentiment index weakened substantially in October, ending the month at a lower-than-expected 87.2. This is down from 87.9 at mid-month to imply a roughly 86 pace in the last two weeks of the month. The last time this index was in the 86 range was two years ago. As it stands, the 87.2 is the lowest showing since September last year.

And it was one year further back, September 2014, that the expectations component, at 76.8 this month, was this weak. Weakness here points to lack of confidence in the jobs outlook. The news on current conditions is better, at 103.2 for only a 1 point dip from September but still the lowest reading since October last year. This reading hints at ongoing slowing in the jobs market and possible slowing for October consumer spending.

Inflation readings continue to be soft, at 2.4 percent for both the year-ahead outlook, which is unchanged from September, and the 5-year outlook which is down 2 tenths from last month.

Other readings on the consumer's mood show less weakness with the monthly consumer confidence report also down but showing some strength in the jobs assessment and the weekly consumer comfort index, though down sharply through most of October, rebounding sharply at month's end. Still, today's report is very closely watched and does hint at building uncertainty over the economic outlook.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Consumer sentiment moved sharply lower in the first part of October, to 87.9 from September's final reading at 91.2. Weakness was isolated to expectations and reflected less confidence in future income prospects. In contrast, the assessment of current conditions rose slightly to hint at October gains in consumer spending. Forecasters see the final October reading coming in at 88.5.