Home Prices Continue Moderating

Home prices have been moderating this year including Case-Shiller where the 20-city adjusted index, following three prior declines, came in unchanged in data for July. Year-on-year, prices slipped 1 tenth in the month to plus 5.0 percent for the lowest rate of the year. This number had been in the double digits as recently as 2014.

Weakest on the year-on-year list is New York City at only plus 1.8 percent, then Washington DC at 2.1 percent. Strongest on the list is Portland at 12.5 percent followed by Seattle at 11.2 percent. Month-to-month, six of the 20 cities posted monthly declines including Chicago, New York, and Atlanta. Monthly gains were led once again by Portland followed by Denver and yet another Western name, Phoenix.

Except for the action out West, tightening supply of resales on the market has yet to boost prices. Still, 5 percent appreciation is more than respectable in a low inflation, low wage growth economy.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Price gains for existing homes have been coming down which is a plus for sales that up to now, at least on the existing home side, have also been flat. Forecasters see the Case-Shiller 20-city index, which tracks prices of existing homes, inching 0.1 percent higher in what would break 3 straight months of decline. Forecasters see the year-on-year rate coming in unchanged at plus 5.1 percent which is respectable in a low inflation economy. This rate had been trending at 6.0 percent early in the year.