First Time Jobless Claims Drop 4K, Still Near Historic Lows

Jobless claims remain little changed near historic lows in further confirmation that layoffs are low and the labor market healthy. Initial claims fell 4,000 in the September 3 week to a lower-than-expected 259,000, pulling the 4-week average down 1,750 to a 261,250 level that is solidly in line with trend. The reporting week was a shortened holiday week for Labor Day and made for a number of state estimates, pointing to the risk of revision in next week's data. Revisions or not, initial claims are very low.

Continuing claims, in lagging data for the August 27 week, fell 7,000 to 2.144 million with this 4-week average down 4,000 to 2.154 million, also in line with trend. The unemployment rate for insured workers remains at a very low 1.6 percent.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Initial jobless claims are expected to hold steady in the September 3 week, at a consensus 264,000 vs 263,000 in the prior week and in line with the 4-week average which is also at 263,000. Readings throughout this report have been consistently low and pointing to low levels of layoffs and healthy conditions in the labor market.