Nonfarm payrolls have risen a more-than-solid 255,000 and 292,000 the
last two months but they barely register on the labor market conditions
index, which at 1.0 in July and a revised negative 0.1 in June are
completely flat.
But it takes more than just payrolls to move
this index which is a broad composite of 19 separate indicators and is
considered experimental by policy makers. This index trended in the
positive mid-single digits during 2013 and 2014 before it began to
gradually move south. But even at only 1.0, July's result is relatively
good for this index, the first in fact to make it in the positive column
this year.
Based on the long trend of this index, the labor
market isn't that strong at all right now, yet Janet Yellen, back at
June's FOMC press conference, downplayed the weight that this index
carries with policy makers.
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