First Time Jobless Claims Drop 4K

Claims are low and point unmistakably to strength in the labor market. Initial claims fell 4,000 in the August 13 week which is a very important week as it is the sample period for the August employment report. The 262,000 level is 10,000 higher than the sample week of the July employment report which isn't very much at all especially since levels are at historic lows. And the 4-week average is a bit more favorable, at a 265,250 level that is only 7,750 above the month-ago comparison.

Continuing claims are likewise only slightly above the month-ago trend. In lagging data for the August 6 week, continuing claims rose a very slight 15,000 to 2.175 million with the 4-week average up 11,000 to 2.155 million. This time last month continuing claims were roughly 25,000 or so lower. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged at a very low 1.6 percent.

Claims have been edging up this month which may point to slightly slower payroll growth than in July, which however was very strong at 255,000. There are no special factors in today's report.

Recent History Of This Indicator
Initial jobless claims are expected to hold steady, at a consensus 265,000 in the August 13 week which was the sample week of the August employment report. A comparison with the July sample week at 257,500 points to only a small rise at a still very low level consistent with health in the labor market.