The Business Week Ahead...

Inflation and the consumer are this week's two themes. Import & export prices as well as producer prices showed pressure in May tied mostly but not entirely to oil, and more of the same is expected for June. But upward effects on core consumer prices are expected to be as limited in June as they were in May. Retail sales on Friday will be the week's main focus and, due to weak vehicle sales, are expected to come down in June from very strong levels in April and May. But looking past the headline, expectations for retail sales are solid. Also on Friday will be the consumer sentiment flash for July which could offer the first indications, if any, of Brexit's impact on the consumer. More on Brexit, not to mention June's strong employment report, is certain to be heard from the week's long list of speakers that will include seven current FOMC members.