The Business Week Ahead

Friday's employment report, where bounce back strength is expected, will dominate an otherwise light week for the calendar. Factory orders on Tuesday and international trade on Wednesday are both expected to show weakness, the former tied to continued declines in business investment and the latter to continued declines for exports. Domestic demand has been the economy's strength and the ISM non-manufacturing report on Wednesday is expected to show acceleration in June though against an easy comparison with a weak May. The Econoday consensus for Friday's employment report is a return to comparatively healthy nonfarm payroll growth, at 180,000. But even a stronger gain, and even including upward revisions to the dismal totals for May and April, would offer only little help for rate-hike expectations, not with Brexit.