Leading Economic Indicators Shows Moderately Positive View

Today's index of leading economic indicators, which is a composite of forward-looking data from June, offers a moderately positive view of the economy going into Brexit. The LEI rose 0.3 percent in June led as always by interest rates, where strength is underpinned by the Fed's low rates, and also by unemployment claims which fell in June and are falling further in July. Building permits are also a plus, and may be next month as well based on incoming housing data, as are stock prices which also may be a plus in July based on the market's current climb. But one component that was neutral in June could turn negative in July and that's consumer expectations which, based on the mid-month consumer sentiment index and also volatility in the weekly consumer comfort report, may show a Brexit crunch this time next month. Still, the LEI offers a reminder that the outlook for the economy points to respectable rates of growth.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
The index of leading indicators is expected to rise a moderately strong 0.3 percent in June which would reverse May's 0.2 percent dip. Positives for June look to be unemployment claims, which moved lower, and consumer confidence which, before Brexit, were moving higher. A decline in the factory workweek, posted in the June employment report, looks to be a negative. This report has been mixed this year and has been offering uncertain signals on the economic outlook.