First Time Jobless Claims Unchanged At 254K

Summer retooling in the auto sector doesn't appear to be underway yet, a special factor that may be distorting adjustments for jobless claims which are very low right now. Initial claims were unchanged at 254,000 in the July 9 week which is a surprise as a sizable bounce higher of 11,000 following the prior week's 16,000 fall was expected. The 4-week average is down nearly 6,000 at 259,000 which is 10,000 below the month-ago trend and is offering an initial hint of continued strength for the monthly employment report, in this case of course for July.

Continuing claims, in lagging data for the July 2 week, did bounce higher, up 32,000 to 2.149 million. But the 4-week average, at 2.143 million, is down slightly in the week and is also slightly lower than the month-ago trend. The unemployment rate is up 1 tenth but is still extremely low at 1.6 percent.

Most of the readings in this report in fact are extremely low which, given the time of year, is a reason for methodological caution.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Initial jobless claims fell a very steep 16,000 in the July 2 week to 254,000 and was joined by a similar fall in continuing claims, both of which are at or near historic lows. Forecasters see claims giving some of the improvement back in the July 9 week, at a consensus 265,000 for what would be an 11,000 rise. Note that auto retooling in the summer can make for unexpected week-to-week swings in this data.