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Thursday, July 28, 2016

First Time Jobless Claims Jump 14K

Ending three weeks of especially low readings, new jobless claims jumped 14,000 in the July 23 week to 266,000. The 4-week average, however, is down slightly, 1,000 lower at 256,500 and more than 10,000 below a month ago.

Lagging data for continuing claims show similar results with the latest week, July 16 in this case, up 7,000 to 2.139 million but the 4-week average down 7,000 to 2.135 which is also 10,000 below a month ago. The unemployment rate for insured workers is very low but did move 1 tenth higher to 1.6 percent.

The Labor Department cites no special factors in the results though seasonal auto-retooling, which has yet to impact claims this summer, may be behind the week's gain for new claims. Still, claims are very low and are pointing to strength for the July employment report.


Recent History Of This Indicator:
Initial jobless claims were expected to reverse prior declines and rise sharply in the July 16 week, which they didn't do. But forecasters, awaiting the onset of retooling layoffs in the auto sector, see the rise that didn't hit the prior week hitting the July 23 week, with the consensus at 264,000 which would be an 11,000 rise. Data throughout this report have been making new historical lows this summer.

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