First Time Jobless Claims Drop Again, Level At Lowest In The Series

Where are auto-retooling layoffs this summer? That's the question, one that may or may not be holding down new jobless claims which are holding at the lowest levels of the recovery and in the history of the series as well. Initial claims fell 1,000 in the July 16 week to a 254,000 level that is far below the consensus which was calling for a spike back higher. The 4-week average, down 1,250 to 257,750, is a solid 9,000 below the June 18 week, an important comparison that matches the sample weeks of the monthly employment reports.

Continuing claims are telling the same story, down 25,000 in lagging data for the July 9 week to 2.128 million. The 4-week average is down 3,000 to 2.141 million and is also below the month-ago trend with the unemployment rate for insured workers dipping 1 tenth to a very low 1.5 percent.

All the readings in this report are very low, arguably at the lowest levels on record. But the missing piece is this summer's auto retooling which, when it appears, may have an outsized reverse effect on the data. The Labor Department says there are no special factors in today's report, one which points to a second month of strength for the monthly employment report.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Initial jobless claims fell a very steep 16,000 in the July 2 week to 254,000 and surprisingly held there in the July 9 week. But easing in strength is expected in the July 16 week with forecasters calling for an 11,000 rise to 265,000. The July 16 week is also the sample week for the monthly employment report and 265,000 would be marginally above the 258,000 level of the June sample week. Seasonal layoffs tied to auto retooling, which inflate claims levels, have yet to appear so far this summer.