Daily Self-Spending Retreats

Americans' daily self-reports of spending averaged $88 in June, a retreat from the higher levels recorded in April ($95) and May ($93). June spending started out strong, with U.S. adults' estimates of their spending averaging $95 from June 1 through June 15 -- essentially in line with spending in April and May. But consumers appeared to pull back significantly in the second half of the month, with daily reports of spending averaging a much lower $82. Gallup did not observe meaningful differences in first-half versus second-half spending estimates in May or in any prior June.

Although the precise relationship between consumers' evaluations of the economy and their personal spending is unclear, Gallup's Economic Confidence Index also fell slightly in the second half of June compared with where it was in the first half. That decline was apparent prior to Britons' voting to leave the European Union, a move that sent financial markets around the world tumbling. U.S. stocks have since recovered most of the losses.

One possible explanation for the later June spending swoon is that consumers were curtailing their expenditures in anticipation of the July Fourth holiday. The average spending estimate for the first three days of July -- data not reported in the figures for June -- was $112. That is substantially higher than any prior July 1-3 estimate, which range from a low of $68 in 2009 to a high of $97 in 2008. Last year, the average for July 1-3 was $89. There is nothing unusual about June's average spending level failing to match May's. In the nine years Gallup has asked its daily spending measure, the June average has yet to exceed the May average. This year's May-to-June drop, in fact, is similar to the average decline of $4 since 2008.