Consumer Sentiment Steady

Consumer sentiment ended July about where it was at mid-July, at 90.0 and down a sizable 3.5 points from June. The weakness is centered in expectations where the index, at 77.8, is down 4.6 points from June in a loss that points to less confidence in the jobs outlook and which perhaps reflects an initial impact from Brexit. The current conditions index, down only 1.8 points from June to 109.0, remains a solid positive in this report. Inflation expectations are soft but steady, at 2.7 percent for the 1-year outlook and 2.6 percent for the 5-year. Aside from the downturn in expectations, this report is mostly positive, holding at respectable levels and pointing to continued spending by the consumer.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
The consumer sentiment flash for July offered the first evidence of a Brexit effect as the index fell 4.0 points to 89.5. Weakness was centered in the expectations component which posted one of its very weakest readings in two years. Forecasters see only a limited snap back for the final sentiment index, up 1.1 points to 90.6. Such a gain would point to only a brief effect from Brexit, at least initially, and no significant effect on July consumer spending.