The Business Week Ahead...

Retail sales on Tuesday open a very heavy and what is expected to be a soft week for economic news. Held back by vehicle sales and only moderate strength in ex-auto ex-gas sales, retail sales are not expected to show anything close to their strength in April. Price data are a theme of the week but, outside of an oil-related spike for import prices, no strength is expected in what could also lower the rate-hike outlook. A rate hike at the week's FOMC is out of the question with all forecasters calling for no change, putting the focus on Janet Yellen's press conference and whether she continues to cite confidence for a second-quarter rebound. Manufacturing is another focus with early hints on June from the Empire State and Philly Fed reports and the first definitive indications on May with the industrial production report. The outlooks for all these factory reports are weak. Housing ends the week with home builders expected to express continued optimism in their housing market index but with housing starts and permits expected to be no better than mixed.