First time Jobless Claims Up 10K, Still Near Historic Lows

One step backward following however two steps forward! Initial claims in the June 25 week did rise 10,000 to a slightly higher-than-expected 268,000 but follow a downwardly revised decline of 19,000 to 258,000 in the prior week. The 4-week average is unchanged in the latest week at a 266,750 level that is roughly 10,000 below a month-ago in what is a favorable indication for the June employment report.

And continuing claims confirm the labor market's strength, down 20,000 in lagging data for the June 18 week to 2.120 million. In an important comparison, the June 18 week was also the sample week for the June employment report and a specific comparison with the sample week of the May employment report shows a very sizable 40,000 improvement. The 4-week average, down 13,000 in the week at 2.134 million, is 17,000 below the May sample week. The good news continues with a 1 tenth downtick in the unemployment rate for insured workers to a record low 1.5 percent.

All the numbers here are at or very near historic lows. There are no special factors in today's report, one that underscores the ongoing improvement of the economy's leading strength -- the labor market.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Initial jobless claims fell a very sharp 18,000 to a lower-than-expected 259,000 in the June 18 week but little give back is expected in the June 25 week where the consensus is calling for only a 7,000 rise to 266,000 in a result that would confirm labor market strength. Even with a gain, levels of initial claims are very low. Levels of continuing claims are also low. Trends in this report are pointing to favorable results for the June employment report.