First Time Jobless Claims Rise 13K, 4-Week Average Drops

Claims data rattled a bit in the latest report but are still trending in the right direction -- which is down. Initial claims rose 13,000 in the June 11 week to 277,000, but the 4-week average is down 2,500 and at 269,250 is still lower than the month-ago trend. This comparison is favorable for the June employment report.

Continuing claims, where data lag, rose a sharp 45,000 to 2.157 million in the June 4 week. But here too, the 4-week average is encouraging, up only 1,000 to 2.150 million and roughly even with the month-ago trend. The unemployment rate for insured workers did tick up a tenth but at a 1.6 percent remains very favorable.

There are no special factors in today's report, one that offers a mixed set-up for next week's report when data for initial claims will track the sampling week for the monthly employment report.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Initial jobless claims in the June 4th week, down 4,000 to 264,000, offered confirmation of strength following the weakness of the May employment report. But forecasters are expecting a move higher in the June 11th week to a 270,000 level that would, however, still be a favorable indication on the labor market. Continuing claims, where data lag by a week, have also been favorable.