Case-Shiller Home Price Index Jumps

Indications on the fundamental health of the consumer are suddenly building rapidly and include solid gains for home prices. Case-Shiller's 20-city index jumped 0.9 percent in data for March in what is the best gain since November. Nineteen of the 20 cities show monthly gains led by Minneapolis at 1.3 percent and four cities at 1.0 percent -- Detroit, San Diego, Seattle, and Tampa.

The monthly gains, however, did not translate to acceleration for the year-on-year rate in March which was unchanged from April at plus 5.4 percent and well below other indications, including FHFA data and sales data on new and existing homes which are all running over 6 percent.

Home-price appreciation is central to household wealth especially when wage growth is low. Consumer spending surged in April, as detailed in this morning's consumer income & outlays report, and much of that can be attributed to confidence in home prices.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Home price data have been rising sharply, especially the FHFA house price index and price data in both the latest existing and new home sales reports. Forecasters see Case-Shiller's closely watched adjusted 20-city index posting a solid 0.7 percent monthly increase though the year-on-year index is seen contracting to plus 5.1 percent. Home-price appreciation, given weakness in wages, is a major key to household wealth this year.