The
index of leading economic indicators rose 0.2 percent in March but
follows a 2 tenths downward revision to February which is now at minus
0.1 percent. January is unrevised at minus 0.2 percent. The revision to
February is important for this series which is designed to anticipate
trends, specifically the outlook six months from now, more so than
month-to-month change. Positives in the March report include stock
prices and interest rates with negatives once again led by building
permits which are failing to show much strength this year. Unemployment
claims are also a negative but that was in the March report, as claims
so far in April are positive. Other details include no change for the
coincident index, a reading that points to flat conditions right now
which, as signaled by the leading index, look to extend through the
third quarter.
Recent History Of This Indicator:
The index of leading indicators is expected to jump 0.5 percent in
March following very weak showings over the prior three months. Declines
in initial jobless claims and a big gain for the ISM new orders index
are expected to lead the positives.
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