Leading Economic Indicators Rises Slightly

The index of leading economic indicators rose 0.2 percent in March but follows a 2 tenths downward revision to February which is now at minus 0.1 percent. January is unrevised at minus 0.2 percent. The revision to February is important for this series which is designed to anticipate trends, specifically the outlook six months from now, more so than month-to-month change. Positives in the March report include stock prices and interest rates with negatives once again led by building permits which are failing to show much strength this year. Unemployment claims are also a negative but that was in the March report, as claims so far in April are positive. Other details include no change for the coincident index, a reading that points to flat conditions right now which, as signaled by the leading index, look to extend through the third quarter.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
The index of leading indicators is expected to jump 0.5 percent in March following very weak showings over the prior three months. Declines in initial jobless claims and a big gain for the ISM new orders index are expected to lead the positives.