Import Prices Fall, Export Prices Unchanged

Yes, a 6.5 percent monthly surge in petroleum prices did make for a 0.2 percent overall gain for import prices in March but when excluding petroleum, import prices fell 0.2 percent. In a telling sign of how deflationary cross-border price pressures have been, import prices excluding petroleum last posted a gain way back in March 2014.

Export prices came in unchanged on the month which is, nevertheless, the best reading since May last year. Prices for exported industrial supplies rose 0.7 percent, offset by a 2.5 percent monthly decline for agricultural products where, in an important reading for farmers, year-on-year prices are down 11.1 percent. Total year-on-year export prices are down 6.1 percent with import prices down 6.2 percent, both readings showing little improvement from recent trend.

Country data for imports show the greatest monthly declines for NICs( newly industrialized countries) at minus 0.5 percent and China at minus 0.2 percent. Year-on-year, price declines are steepest for Canada and Latin America, at minus 12.5 and at minus 9.7 percent respectively, both strong reflections of low oil and commodity prices.

Prices of finished goods, both imported and exported, are down to flat with year-on-year readings for all categories either flat or slightly negative. Global deflation is the theme and an initial rise for oil-based prices isn't yet making much impact.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Import & export prices have been suffering through a long run of contraction but February showed improvement and more is expected for March. The consensus is calling for an oil-based 1.0 percent jump for import prices, vs February's minus 0.3 percent, and no change for export prices, vs minus 0.4 percent in February. This year's roughly 5 percent decline in the dollar should begin to ease deflation on the import side.