Chicago PMI Flat

Activity in the Chicago area has been flat this month as the PMI fell to 50.4 for April from 53.6 in March. Growth in new orders has slowed while backlogs are down sharply. These readings do not point in the coming months to strength for production or employment which are already soft. Lead times for deliveries, as indicated in other reports, are increasing not because of congestion tied to economic strength but to lack of inventories among suppliers who have cut back. One plus is a jump in prices paid, reflecting higher fuel costs that will hopefully help give a boost to overall inflation. This report does not point to Spring momentum for the Chicago economy or for the national economy.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
The Chicago PMI is expected to come in at 53.4 in April which would be little changed from 53.6 in March. But this report, up one month and down the next, is extremely volatile as the last four results have fallen outside Econoday's consensus range. But March's results do point to strength for April, specifically gains for both new orders and backlog orders. Production and employment were also strong. This report tracks both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors of the Chicago economy.