Food Exports Lead Strong Trade Report

Trade in goods popped up February, with exports up 2.0 percent and imports up 1.6 percent. The total goods deficit is an initial $62.9 billion. Exports of foods were especially strong in the month as were exports of consumer goods. Exports of capital goods, by far the largest component, inched higher. Pulling back exports was a 1.4 percent decline for industrial supplies that was tied in part to oil-based price weakness.

Imports were led by a 6.9 percent jump in consumer goods, one that hints at rising business expectations here at home. Imports of capital goods were also up and together with the gain for exports of capital goods are positives for global business investment. Imports of food were also up offsetting a decline for industrial supplies.

Cross-border activity has been a major negative for the global economy but February's goods data are positive. This report represents the goods portion of the monthly international trade report which will be posted a week from Tuesday.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
The international trade in goods is expected to widen slightly in February to $62.5 billion vs January's $63.7 billion (revised from $62.2 billion). This year's decrease in the dollar, amounting to several percentage points, should begin to help exports which, however, proved very weak in January. Exports of capital goods have been especially weak as have imports of capital goods, together pointing to lack of global business investment. Imports of consumer goods have been flat and pointing to slowing in domestic household demand.