Inflation is no longer described as moving lower but as remaining low in what hints at limited progress toward the Fed's 2 percent goal. Though the statement does note some pick up in recent months, the projection for this year's PCE core rate is unchanged at plus 1.6 percent. There is no change in the assessment of inflation expectations.
There is certainly no signal in this report that a rate hike is likely at the next meeting in April or even in June, only that there will likely be two 1/4 point moves before year end. In a note on a change in prior language, today's statement excludes any reference to the balance of risks between economic activity and the labor market. Today's vote, 9 to 1, was not unanimous with the dovish tone leaving behind Kansas City's Esther George who lived up to her hawkish reputation and called for an immediate 25 basis point hike.
Recent History Of This Indicator:
The Federal funds rate target is expected to remain unchanged at a range between 0.25 to 0.50 percent, where it was set at the December FOMC. Though some Fed officials have been pointing to the strength of recent inflation data, there are no expectations among Econoday's 12 forecasters for any change at the March meeting. Global risks were not cited in the December statement but they were called up at the January meeting and are expected to be pointed to again, as the pivotal reason for not raising rates. Today's statement will include quarterly economic forecasts and will be followed by Janet Yellen's press conference.
The Federal funds rate target is expected to remain unchanged at a range between 0.25 to 0.50 percent, where it was set at the December FOMC. Though some Fed officials have been pointing to the strength of recent inflation data, there are no expectations among Econoday's 12 forecasters for any change at the March meeting. Global risks were not cited in the December statement but they were called up at the January meeting and are expected to be pointed to again, as the pivotal reason for not raising rates. Today's statement will include quarterly economic forecasts and will be followed by Janet Yellen's press conference.
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