National Activity Index Rises In January

Doubts over the outlook may be building but January was a solid month for the economy as the national activity index rose to plus 0.28 from a revised minus 0.34 in December. The gain lifts the 3-month average to minus 0.15 from minus 0.30. It was a jump in industrial production that led January's charge, lifting the production component which contributed 0.27 to the headline after pulling it down by 0.38 in December. Gains in vehicle production were a highlight of the industrial production report which also got a boost from a weather-related swing higher for utility output. Employment also added to January's headline but less so from December's outstanding strength, to plus 0.12 from plus 0.16. Sales/orders/inventories were little changed at minus 0.03 with personal consumption & housing unchanged at minus 0.08. The readings in this report, though in general favorable, are mixed with the current month pointing to above-trend historical growth but not the 3-month average which points to below average growth.