First Time Jobless Claims Rise 10K, Still Near Historic Lows

Initial jobless claims did rise 10,000 in the February 20 week but remain near historic lows, at 272,000. The 4-week average is down slightly and is also at 272,000, a level that is down more than 10,000 from January's readings which points to strength for the monthly February employment report.

Continuing claims, in lagging data for the February 13 week, fell 19,000 to 2.253 million with the 4-week average down 5,000 to 2.257 million. These readings show a bit less improvement from February. The unemployment rate for insured workers is steady at only 1.7 percent.

There are no special factors in today's data which, despite the lack of improvement in continuing claims, are likely to firm expectations for a solid February employment report.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
The February 13 week, which was the sample week for the monthly employment report, proved pivotal for initial jobless claims which fell sizably to 262,000 for the lowest reading since November. The month-to-month comparison with the January sample week points to significant improvement for the February employment report. This will definitely upstage data for the February 20 week where the Econoday consensus is calling for a rise back to 270,000. But this week's report will include lagging data for continuing claims that will also track the February 13 week.