Consumer Sentiment Index Firms

The break out of Donald Trump's presidential bid did not affect the consumer sentiment index which firmed 1.0 point from mid-month to a 91.7 level that is only marginally below January's 92.0. In fact, the implied pace over the last two weeks is roughly 92.5 which would point to a small gain.

Components are little changed, at 106.8 for current conditions for a small gain of 1 point from mid-month and 4 tenths from January and at 81.9 for expectations for a 9 tenths gain from mid-month but an 8 tenths decline from January. Inflation expectations are mixed with 1-year expectations unchanged at 2.5 percent but the 5-year outlook showing some erosion, down 2 tenths and also at 2.5 percent.

Economic news has been mixed with readings on the consumer and the labor market favorable but other data, especially tied to the global economy, unfavorable. But political news has been anything but mixed and the consumer's early reaction, based on this report, seems to be muted.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Global stress and this year's decline for the stock market have had only limited impact on consumer confidence measures which have been steady and firm. The consumer sentiment index is expected to come in at 91.0 for the final February reading vs 92.0 for final January and February's flash of 90.7. Resiliency and patience in the domestic consumer, who is getting a boost from low unemployment, would point to solid results for the first-quarter economy. An important detail will be inflation expectations and the effect of low oil prices, readings that are closely watched by Federal Reserve policy makers.