Consumer Sentiment Falls More Than Expected, Still Near Average

The consumer may be feeling some uneasiness from all the market dramatics but not much. Flash consumer sentiment for February did fall 1.3 points to a lower-than-expected level of 90.7 that is, however, still near the 92.0 average over the prior four months and actually matches the third-quarter average, also at 90.7. The current conditions component, at 105.8 for an 8 tenths decline from January, is still stronger than it was as recently as November. The expectations component, down 1.7 points to 81.0, is down only a point or two from the four prior months.

But there is sizable change in inflation expectations, at least long-term expectations which are down 3 tenths for the 5-year outlook to 2.4 percent. In an offset, 1-year expectations are unchanged at 2.5 percent.

Retail sales for January, outside of gasoline, proved solid and together with the limited softness in this report, should support FOMC expectations for consumer-driven strength in the U.S. economy.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Consumer confidence measures have been steady and firm and have been pointing to no immediate psychological impact from global stress and losses in the domestic stock market. The consumer sentiment index is expected to come in at 92.5 for the flash February reading vs 92.0 for final January and January's flash of 93.3. An important detail will be inflation expectations and the effect of still falling gasoline prices, a reading that is closely watched by Federal Reserve policy makers. Resiliency and patience for the domestic consumer, who is the single-most pillar of the U.S economy, would point to unexpected strength for the first quarter.