ADP Predicting 205K Rise In Private Payrolls

ADP is calling for less strength in the January employment report, at 205,000 for private payrolls which, though far lower than December, is still 15,000 above the Econoday consensus. The outsized strength of the December report, at 292,000 for nonfarm payrolls, makes it harder to read the comparisons. But a gain of 200,000 or even close to this level for either private payrolls or nonfarm payrolls would be consistent with very solid conditions. ADP last month correctly called for the outsized strength of the December report and its call today is likely, especially given the ongoing rise in unemployment claims, to renew confidence in the jobs market.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
ADP's private payroll tally doesn't always accurately predict the outcome of the monthly employment report but it certainly did in December, calling for an outsized gain that proved to be correct. Less dramatic strength is seen for the January labor market where the consensus for ADP is 190,000.