Retail Sales Disappoint In December

Retail sales proved disappointing in December, down 0.1 percent in a headline that is not skewed by vehicles or even that much by gasoline. Ex-auto sales also fell 0.1 percent while the core ex-auto ex-gas reading came in unchanged which is well below both expectations as well as low-end expectations. The Beige Book yesterday warned us about weak apparel sales which in this report fell a very steep 0.9 percent, in a decline that likely reflects more than just import-price contraction. The general merchandise category, which is very large, fell 1.0 percent in the month. Electronics & appliances also show contraction.

December winds up what was a not-so-great year for the nation's retailers. Total sales rose only 2.1 percent in the year, the smallest gain since 2009 and well down from 3.9 percent in 2014. Excluding motor vehicles, sales rose 0.9 percent, far lower than 2014's 3.1 percent.

There are, however, some positives in the report including another strong gain for restaurants, up 0.8 percent, and also another gain for furniture & home furnishings, up 0.9 percent in strength that confirms ongoing improvement in the housing sector. But sales at non-store retailers rose only 0.3 percent for a second straight month which are moderate gains that do not confirm anecdotal reports of unusual holiday strength for online shopping.

Upward revisions do take some of the sting out of the December report but not much. November total sales are revised 2 tenths higher to plus 0.4 percent and reflect a sharp upward revision to vehicle sales to plus 0.5 percent. But vehicle sales couldn't muster any strength in December, coming in unchanged. And sales at gasoline stations extended their long run of contraction that reflects falling oil prices, down 1.1 percent in December.

There's plenty of jobs for consumers and gas prices are low -- but so are wages. The consumer started to slow down at year end and that was before the new trouble in China. Today's data will pull down expectations for fourth-quarter growth.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Held back by slowing in vehicle sales, retail sales were lukewarm going into year-end. The Econoday consensus is calling for no change in December, which improves to a consensus 0.2 percent gain when excluding autos. Core rates have been more solid with forecasters calling for a moderate 0.3 percent gain for December's ex-auto ex-gas reading. It will be this report's core readings, in fact, that will determine the health or weakness of holiday sales and their contribution to fourth-quarter growth.