October Rare Good Month For The Factory Sector

October was a rare good month for the factory sector, not November where manufacturing production in the industrial production report was no better than unchanged and now new orders were also unchanged. Excluding transportation, orders dip into the minus column though just barely at minus 0.1 percent. Capital goods had turned higher in October but, once again, November is a different story with core orders down 0.4 percent and October's gain shaved in half, and more so from plus 1.3 percent to a revised plus 0.6 percent. Year-on-year, core orders are down a very weak looking 1.8 percent. Core shipment data are also in the negative column, at monthly losses of minus 0.5 percent and minus 1.0 percent for the last two months which is a very poor opening for fourth-quarter business investment. Weak exports and weak energy-related demand continue to pull back the nation's factory sector.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
The factory sector bounced back strongly in October with durable goods orders jumping 3.0 percent and up a solid 0.5 percent excluding transportation. Capital goods highlighted the report with core orders up 1.3 percent and a decline in the prior month revised away to a 0.4 percent gain. But forecasters don't see another month of strength for November with the Econoday consensus calling for a 0.5 percent decline in headline orders with ex-transportation orders no better than unchanged.