First Time Jobless Claims Rise 13K

Claims are up in the latest data, pointing perhaps to a softening of what has been a very solid labor market. Initial claims rose 13,000 to 282,000 which is 13,000 higher than the prior week and 12,000 over the Econoday consensus. This is also the highest reading since all the way back in July. But the 4-week average is steady, up only 1,500 to a 270,750 level that is only very slightly over the month-ago trend.

Continuing claims also show an unusual increase, up a very steep 82,000 in lagging data for the November 28 week to 2.243 million which is the highest reading since September. The 4-week average is up 16,000 to 2.183 million which is about 20,000 higher than the month-ago comparison. The unemployment rate for insured workers remains very low but is up 1 tenth to 1.7 percent for the highest reading since, again, back in September.

There are no special factors behind the increases though data for Louisiana, reflecting computer problems, were estimated for a third straight week. Claims remain very low but this report could raise early concern over the December employment report. This report next week will be very closely watched as the sample week for initial claims will match the sample week for the December report.

Recent History Of This Indicator
Initial jobless claims have been trending at 42-year lows and, as a share of the whole labor market, are likely at record lows. For the December 5 week, Econoday forecasters see initial claims holding steady, up 1,000 to a still very low 270,000. Continuing claims have also been at record lows.