Consumer Price Inflation Continues Very Low

Consumer price inflation is very low though the deflationary thrust may be clearing. The CPI came in as expected with no change in November with the core rate, which excludes food and energy, also coming in at expectations with a moderate 0.2 percent gain.

Many components show declines in the month including transportation, apparel (where low import prices are still at play), and recreation. Food prices also fell in the month, which is the first drop since March, while energy prices really fell, down 1.3 percent in November reflecting a 2.4 percent decline for gasoline in a dip that continues to extend through December as well. But there are areas showing pressure including medical care for a second month in a row. Housing is also up but only at a moderate 0.2 percent with owner's equivalent rent also up 0.2 percent.

Year-on-year prices are showing lift but reflect easy comparisons with price weakness this time last year. The overall rate is up 0.5 percent, 3 tenths higher in the month, with the core rate up 1 tenth to 2.0 percent which hits the Fed's target.

This report is in line with the Fed's outlook, showing an easing, at least to a degree, in deflationary pressures. But still falling fuel prices are definitely a live risk to the Fed's inflation hopes.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Consumer prices have been showing some lift with October's year-on-year rate for the core at plus 1.9 percent and the year-to-date rate at 2.1 percent. Service prices, led by medical care, showed special pressure in October. But pressures in this report have been limited and Econoday forecasters are calling for no change at the headline level though they are calling for an intrend 0.2 percent rise for the core.