The Week Ahead...

Everything will turn on Friday and the November employment report where even a modest result would extend the improving trend of the labor market and, importantly, all but seal a rate hike at the mid-month FOMC. Janet Yellen will be busy in the week, speaking in New York midday Wednesday and testifying in Washington mid-morning Thursday. Her comments could affect rate-hike expectations as could Wednesday's release of the Beige Book which will offer the Fed's own economic background for the mid-month meeting. But economic news in the week looks to be no better than mixed. Pending home sales will be Monday's focus and whether the existing home market, which has been soft, may be bouncing back. This will be followed on Tuesday by construction spending which, boosted by strength in the new home market, has been very strong. Factory data have been on the rebound and gains for the ISM on Tuesday and factory orders on Thursday would confirm the emerging strength. Other data of note include vehicle sales on Tuesday, where steady strength is expected, and trade data on Friday where both exports and imports are expected to be weak.