Initial Jobless Claims Up 16K, Still At Low Levels

Initial claims shot 16,000 higher in the October 31 week but still remain very low, at 276,000. The 4-week average rose 3,500 to 262,750. There were no special factors in the week.

Continuing claims, where data lag by a week, rose 17,000 to 2.163 million. The 4-week average is down 11,000 at 2.162 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged at 1.6 percent.

The rise for initial claims is unexpected but would have to be repeated in subsequent weeks before downgrading what is still a very favorable outlook for the unemployment side of the labor market.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Jobless claims are expected to hold near a long run of deep and impressive lows, at a consensus 262,000 in the October 24 week. Claims have been signaling very tight conditions in the labor market for the last six months and are now signaling even tighter conditions still.