Consumer Sentiment Moving Sharply Higher

Consumer sentiment is moving sharply higher this month, to 93.1 for the mid-month flash in the highest reading since July. Expectations are especially showing life, up 3.5 points to 85.6 which is the best since June. Strength in expectations points to confidence in the outlook for the jobs market and, to a lesser degree, for the stock market as well. The assessment of current conditions is also higher, at 104.8 for a 2.5 point gain and pointing to strength in the current jobs market.

Inflation expectations are moving lower, at least for the 1-year outlook which is down a steep 2 tenths to 2.5 percent. This reading is a reminder of how weak inflation reports are coming in, including today's data on producer prices. But longer term expectations are stable, unchanged and also at 2.5 percent for the 5-year outlook.

Rising confidence hints perhaps at a pick up for retail sales in the key month of November, a back-loaded month that kicks off the holidays after Thanksgiving.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Consumer sentiment has been solid this year but has been trending lower from a January peak near 100. But the Econoday consensus for the preliminary November reading is 92.0 for what would be a solid 2.0 point gain from October. Gains in this report would underscore the strength of the jobs market.