The Week Ahead...

There may be virtually no expectations for a rate hike, but Wednesday's FOMC statement still headlines the week's news. Focus will be on any wording changes, whether on inflation or on China for instance, that could raise the chances or further lower the chances for a December liftoff. There is a run of market-moving indicators leading off Monday with new home sales where a gain, against a tough comparison, isn't expected. The factory sector has been moving down all year and more of the same is expected for durable goods orders on Tuesday. The first estimate for third-quarter GDP will be posted on Thursday and soft growth, at only 1.7 percent, is the call. And Friday is also an important day with two Fed favorites — the core PCE price index which has been running cold and the employment cost index where a prior collapsed pushed back the liftoff outlook.