Initial Jobless Claims At Lower Than Expected 259K

Jobless claims are pointing to very tight conditions on the unemployment side of the labor market with initial claims coming in at a lower-than-expected 259,000 in the October 17 week, just up from the prior week's near 42-year low of 256,000. The 4-week average is at a new 42-year low, down 2,000 to 263,250. The October 17 week was also the sample week for October employment report and a comparison with the sample week of the September employment report shows improvement, down 5,000 with the 4-week average down a more tangible 9,250.

Continuing claims, where reporting lags by a week, are very healthy, up 6,000 to 2.170 million but with the 4-week average down 18,000 to 2.185 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers remains very low at 1.6 percent.

As a share of the ever-increasing labor market, current levels of jobless claims may very well be at record lows. There are no special factors in today's report, one that points to a continued improvement for, if not hiring and payroll growth, at least for the unemployment rate.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Jobless claims are expected to rise slightly to 265,000 in the October 10 week, near its run of lows that include the prior week's 42-year low of 255,000. For the last six months, claims have been signaling very tight conditions in the labor market and have lately been signaling even tighter conditions.