The Business News Week Ahead

Monetary policy may or may not upend the coming week which, for economic data at least, looks routine, beginning over the weekend with what are expected to be flat PMI results out of China's manufacturing sector and ending Friday with August employment data from what has been a surprisingly strong US labor market. Yet like China, the manufacturing sector in the US has been in retreat with the outside risk on Tuesday of the first sub-50 or near-50 ISM index in three years. Yet however much manufacturing may be suffering, US trade data on Wednesday are expected to show improvement unlike German manufacturing orders on Thursday in which contraction is the expectation. Thursday's calendar also includes second-quarter GDP out of Switzerland, an economy that has been standing up against weakness in Europe and is likely to get increasing attention given demand for safety in the financial markets. Industrial production out of Germany will open Friday's session which will be capped by US employment where Econoday's consensus is calling for a very respectable nonfarm payroll rise of 158,000. Aside from data, there will be announcements from two central banks in the week with contrasting biases, first from the Reserve Bank of Australia which has been cutting rates and the Bank of Canada which has not. No action is expected from either bank. The week winds up on Friday with an evening speech in Zurich by Jerome Powell and a title that actually hints at a market mover: "Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy".